Sunday, August 5, 2007

What is dragging the markets down?

As I start writing this first post on my all new blog, the thing that really keeps coming to my mind is the sorry state of the DOW,KOSPI,SHANGHAI and other major composite indices. Most of them are already down 2% or more as of now. DOW closed around 280 pts down on Friday. On an average Asia is down 2% or more with China being an exception.

When i had a word with some of the leading brokers/relationship managers from the brokerages about the consensus they/there clients have as of now, i got only feeling, corrections are giving them better opportunities to put some more money lying with them.

The fears of Sub Prime markets in US are really playing the global markets down. Its a global situation and for sure we at India too are going to bear the brunt. We just cannot say this to ourselves that OK , US is down 2%, no problems, they are a bad market and we at India are a good market, with good earnings results, good business opportunities etc.. that logic wont work. Bankers like Lehman,Macquarie etc have already expressed that some of there money is going to make loss.

In such situations where the banks are getting sucked in, you never know how much money is actually going to move out of the markets like us in India. Taiwan saw outward flows of 4b$ during last two weeks and we dont know how much has actually moved out from our market.

Its kind of a situation which traders really dont want to be in, the markets tend to recover, and then you open up some long positions in the futures market ,and, overnight you get some bad news from the markets in US and we make a vertical fall. Just imagining such a situation make my nerves feel the cold.

Yen has appreciated 1.4% and this is another bad signal which is coming all over from Japan, its clearly telling us that there is a huge volatality churning around. This volatality for sure will make re adjustments of the global currencies.

We are in a situation in which over the near term stock prices will for sure come off and if you are a trader then for sure it will give you a raise in your blood pressure levels. If you are an investor, possibly, this fall will give you ample opportunities to buy quality stories.

Lets be prepared for a gap down opening today. I am not sure how much gap down we are going to go but on a practical note, i believe it can be anywhere from 200 to 400 pts on the SENSEX.

Cheers,
Vaibhav

3 comments:

Vikas said...

Hi!! Well written post. I believe the markets should stabilize by end of August.

Keep writing.

Mahesh N said...

I feel this volatility is over hyped. The markets might settle down soon and move towards the new highs.

Zimri said...

Thanks for writing this.